In the spirit of UNITY, I have a message for both parties:
Democrats, stop insinuating Republicans are uneducated morons.
Republicans, “insinuating” means hinting at something bad in an indirect way.
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Here’s what’s been on my mind about polls for the last year or so…
In 2016, we all know that the national polls were basically accurate, giving Hillary Clinton the popular vote - and she did indeed win the popular vote. But the state polls were off significantly in the states that mattered for that election.
In 2017, with retooled polls, the off-year elections basically matched up with what the pollsters said.
In 2018, the polls predicted a blue wave, and it fully materialized, with Democrats even over-performing.
In 2019, the polls were still pretty accurate, but again, Democrats over-performed in special elections.
In 2020, the polls at all levels except the presidency underestimated Democratic support.
In 2021, the Democrats again over-performed versus the polls.
In 2022, Democrats not only over-performed, they completely obliterated the supposed “red wave” that was supposed to occur that year. It became a pink trickle, with Republicans taking the House by the barest thread, and Democrats unexpectedly increasing their lead in the Senate.
In 2023, Democrats over-performed again in special elections.
In this year’s early special election, Democrats are still over-performing versus the polls.
Democrats have been consistently exceeding the expectations set by polls since around 2018. And I have a hypothesis about it: Pollsters are basically fucked for the time being.
Here’s why:
- Phone polls are getting harder and harder to conduct. Especially with young people, who never answer calls to their cellphones from unknown numbers. So pollsters are relying more and more on the few landlines remaining, and the demographics of those respondents skew conservative. They can only do so much weighting to try to mitigate the problem of oversampling conservatives.
- Online polls and texting polls are improving, but still very hard to conduct in a scientifically rigorous manner.
- Young people are voting. This is a relatively new phenomenon, and the pollsters haven’t yet figured out how to properly predict the voting proclivities - and thus weight the answers - of young people who are much more engaged politically than previous generations.
I’ve held for some time that the polls between Biden and Trump might have anywhere from a four point to a nine point error in Trump’s favor. And that might apply to Harris and Trump as well.
So… Harris has a two-point lead in this poll. If the polling error hasn’t been fixed this cycle - and I don’t think it has - her real lead might be six points. And it might be eleven points.
I think there might be good reason to hope. BUT…
The pollsters might have figured their shit out. Maybe the polling error is fixed. There’s no way to know until the election. And here’s what we need to do: Prove that it’s not fixed yet and make Harris massively over-perform versus the polls. Sweep the motherfuckers out of the House and Senate while you’re at it. Show that the polls since 2017 have continued to underestimate Democratic support, and kick the fucking fascists in the fucking teeth - electorally speaking, of course.
im reading, im reading, im reading…
last paragraph
“hell, yeah!”
Biden under performed his polling in 2020 almost every state; Trump over performed his polling almost across the board, almost every state. The fundamental issue with polling is that is measures demographic distribution, but not demographic engagement.
since we’re not talking about any other race right now, this point:
In 2020, the polls at all levels except the presidency underestimated Democratic support.
Is the only one that matters. On average Biden under formed by 4% (-4). On average, Trump over-performs (not down ballots, only Trump has this quality) by 8% (+8).
Just dropping Biden and we put 4 points back on the board. This is a great starting point. We should keep the +8 to Trump on the board when we look around. Trump polls at 42% favorability; he’s not the incumbent so some standard metrics like the gallup won’t help us here. We’re really going to be out over our handle bars a bit, but I think +8 is a good starting point to make safe bets on.
So to feel “good” about this, we should look to see Kamala up 8 points, which I don’t think is particularly challenging. I’m going to be putting down a couple bets for 3 weeks out that she’s in the 45+ range in the aggregate. She’s got a lot of meat that Biden left on the bone. There are easily 4 points available to her with an improved Israel/ Gaza policy. There are another 4 points available to her with some very basic policies like paid family leave and child tax credit.
Boom. Two things and she’s easily over the hump. Pick a Northern midwest Democrat and send them to signal your ME policy, or you do that and send your VP to GA/ NC and start working those states.
My called shot: This time next month (4-5 weeks), Kamala is poling at 45-48%; Trump will be polling at 38-42%.
Still the guy who tried to overthrow the government and only does not go to jail because he stacked the courts with fascists, is polling at 42% when he should be at 3%
This is just starting. I’m always baffled by just how long it takes news to trickle into polling. You should expect her numbers to continue to gain for any where from two to three weeks out from this week. Most people are utterly tuned out and have been for a while, so it will take time.
A few other considerations as we watch her polling: Harris is getting real grass roots support. This is something Biden never had (barely in 2020, and very much not in 2024). Progressive groups are mobilizing now and the infrastructure is being set up as we speak, but Harris will have real advocacy at a grass-roots starting end of this week, and really coming online in another 2-4 weeks since it takes time to get set up, get volunteers, gets access to the van, etc.
I honestly believe that Biden only won in 2020 because of how badly Trump fumbled covid. Biden just was never able to energize the base like you’re saying. Covid did the work of energizing people for him. Even in 2022 it wasn’t that the dems were well liked or Biden helped down the ticket, it was that Trump endorsed the worst possible candidates.
Biden only won in 2020 because of how badly Trump fumbled covid
Oh 100%. And a dusty old boot could have beat him. Trump is and has always been an infinitely beatable candidate. Its just a matter of not running objectively weaker candidates like Hillary or Biden.
Biden won 2020 for two reasons: The DNC ratfucked Bernie in the primary (their words, not mine); and when it came time, Bernie was the bigger man and asked his constituents to support Biden in exchange for control of the platform (and the deal worked!).
Biden won the nomination because he kicked butt in the South so bad everybody else dropped out.
He always was kind of a weak candidate, but he won, and more importantly he made his win stick during the whole run up to the coup and after. He wasn’t in the news much then, but that took a cool head.
Biden won the nomination because he kicked butt in the South so bad everybody else dropped out.
This is such a delusional statement I don’t even know where to start.
Biden didn’t start winning until the DNC ratfucked the process.
Those are Adam Smith’s, eg, the self admitted chief ratfuckers words, not mine.
Bernie was running away with it till the collective drop out on the Sunday before Super Tuesday. Why in the fuck else do you think Pete Buttigieg, a one time mayor of a microscopic college town is secretary of anything?
Looks like polls are viewed as acceptable again.
