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Cake day: September 27th, 2023

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  • Trump, a main draw for Truth Social users and many retail investors in the company, said earlier in September that he will not sell his stake. The stock price briefly shot up after his remarks.

    Other early investors have made no such promises. They include ARC Global, a sponsor of the blank-check firm that took Trump Media public, and United Atlantic Ventures, an entity controlled by two former contestants on Trump’s reality show “The Apprentice.”

    I believe it’s not only that these investors made no promises not to sell, but that several of them specifically expressed that they would be selling as soon as they were legally allowed to do so.

    It’s hard to accurately value Truth Social. But I think if Trump were to leave the platform, its value would go to zero, and that makes it very risky. I just saw a price of 12.74. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s still quite overvalued, and so it makes sense for those investors to try to sell at this price.


















  • It doesn’t have to be an assassination attempt. Just the fact that there was life-threatening violence in a place that is so close to her that her bodyguard had to be involved brings this issue to mind. Even if a liberal justice dies of natural causes right now, with the Senate’s razor-thin margin, it’s possible for another RBG moment were Trump to win, making SCOTUS an even worse 7-2 supermajority for conservatives. If Supreme Court justices were elected to proportionally represent Americans, there would be at least a 5-4 majority for liberals.


  • A carjacker pulled a gun on a person sitting in a car in front of Justice Sotomayor’s home, a place where it’s very possible that she might have been. It doesn’t matter whether she was targeted or not. If she dies for whatever reason, it’s a concern. Whoever Biden appoints would have to pass the Senate with the current razor thin majority.

    Had she been in the car for some reason, then we might have another Ruth Bader Ginsberg moment, and in the worst case scenario, Trump could get reelected and appoint somebody for a 7-2 conservative majority in the Supreme Court.

    Don’t get stuck in the idea that lifetime appointments are only a problem for assassinations. Ginsberg died of natural causes, and see what that got us.