Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is perhaps the top contender to be Kamala Harris’s running mate. But Shapiro would be an awful selection, with a history of alienating and antagonizing core party constituencies and caving to pressure on major issues.
  • pjwestin@lemmy.world
    22·
    3 months ago

    A) It’s not a given that Shapiro will deliver PA. B) Even if he does, he makes Michigan a loss. C) Bad VP picks lower enthusiasm. Hillary chose to ignore the progressive voters that were energized by Bernie’s campaign and instead picked boring centrist Tim Kaine. It turned out to he a bad strategy, even if it did deliver Virginia.

      • pjwestin@lemmy.world
        9·
        3 months ago

        Well, over 100,000 Democrats voted, “Uncommitted,” in the primaries because of the genocide in Gaza, which was already nearly the 150,000 that Biden carried the state by in 2020, and well more than the 10,000 that Clinton lost by in 2016. Most polls still have Harris behind Trump in Michigan, so picking an Israel apologist as VP is almost certainly going to make Michigan go red.

        As for Tim Kaine, I can give you two main data ponts: 4.4 million voters who turned out for Obama stayed home for Clinton, and Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election. It’s hard to quantify how much of that lack of enthusiasm was caused by her poor VP pick, but it’s safe to say an obscure centrist senator certainly didn’t generate any enthusiasm.

        Anyway, I don’t know if that data is up to your standards, but since you didn’t supply any to back up your assertions, I’m not sure it matters.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          4·
          3 months ago

          They voted uncommitted because Biden is literally sending bombs and money. Not because he said he supports Israel. They also made it a huge point to say they’d vote for Biden in the general election. And they’ve largely gone inactive since March.

          Also, you must not have looked at the polling recently. She’s ahead in Michigan. The best Trump is doing is getting dead even without Kennedy in the poll.

          If you’re going to withhold your vote over one of the least powerful positions in our government then you either don’t understand how the vice presidency works or you weren’t going to vote for Harris anyways.

          • pjwestin@lemmy.world
            4·
            3 months ago

            Only one poll has Harris with a large lead, most polls conducted at about the same time show Trump with a slight lead, and the Five Thirty-Eight average has them in a statistical tie. Seems much more likely that the one poll is an outlier rather than Harris suddenly gaining a 10 point lead in a matter of days. Also, while the leaders of the Uncommitted movement may support Biden in the general, that doesn’t mean that they speak for the entire Muslim population of Michigan, and on the ground reporting indicates they definitely don’t.

            I’m not going to withhold my vote over a Shapiro pick, but I think there are a lot of people in Dearborn who might feel differently. Harris is a part of the Biden administration, so if she wants to win back Muslim Americans, she’s going to need to show she differs from Biden on Gaza. Shapiro says the opposite.

            Anyway, I’m getting a lot of conjecture and opinion here, but not a lot of data, so I think I’m gonna leave it at this.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
              2·
              3 months ago

              The only polls with trump in the lead are SoCal and Redfield who always skew right. Like I said above, everything else runs equal to Harris lead.

              Which is why the polling averages look like this.

              And in your own article, about Biden, from April, they say they’d vote for Biden against Trump.

              You’re running away because you shot your mouth off and you’re just now realizing the data doesn’t actually support you.

              Edit to add - imgur threw an NSFW warning on it… That’s hilarious.

              • pjwestin@lemmy.world
                4·
                3 months ago

                JFC, I guess I’m breaking the data down for you:

                Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-7/29): Harris: 45% Trump 45%

                Morning Consult (7/24-7/28): Harris: 53% Trump 42% (This is a HUGE outlier)

                SoCal Research (7/25-7/26): Harris: 46% Trump: 49%

                Redfield and Winton Strategies (7/22-7/24): Harris: 41% Trump: 44%

                Glengariff Group (7/22-7/24): Harris: 42% Trump: 41% (Only other poll with Harris having a slight lead, and it’s within the margin of error)

                Emerson (7/22-7/24): Harris: 49% Trump: 51% (Though this one does have them tried if you add in third parties)

                So, when you said, “You must not have looked at the polling recently. She’s ahead in Michigan,” (and by the way, dont think I didnt catch that goalpost move with, “equal to Harris lead”) that wasn’t really true; she’s ahead in one of the 3 latest polls (by a margin so large it seems like a polling mistake), and she’s only ahead in two of the six polls done in the last month. You are right though, the 538 Average does have her up by 2.2%, but again, that’s probably mostly because one poll is giving her a ten point lead, which is a huge outlier from the rest of the data.

                Anyway, is the data good enough for you yet, guy who demands data but only cites a signal polling average throughout his grand assertions about Shapiro, Harris, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan? Have I finally given you enough proof to meet your rigorous evidentiary standards? Standards which you yourself will not meet? Well, I actually don’t care. Here’s a bunch of quotes from the article you think proves, “they,” will vote for Biden:

                “If it came down to Trump and Joe Biden, I will vote for Trump. Because it doesn’t get worse than Joe Biden,” a man named Salah told me.

                I’ve now come to understand the incandescent rage many feel toward Biden. And in Dearborn, I heard a lot more than distaste for him. I heard many who fully believe that Donald Trump will fight for them more than Joe Biden—and plan to take that belief to the ballot box in November.

                “What do they say? ‘What are they going to do, vote for the guy that banned Arabs?’ And the answer is yes,” Amer Zahr, a Palestinian American comedian and Dearborn local, told me at one of the city’s many Yemeni cafés one afternoon… “Imagine thinking it’s a good argument to say to a community that has lost 30,000 people, ‘Watch out for the guy that’s going to ban you.’ You’re really asking me whether I’m going to take a ban or a genocide? I’ll take a ban.”

                I asked Hammoud. How does he square support for someone who was widely seen as favorable to the Israeli government? “Biden is deeply committed to Zionism, a true believer, not acting on the whims of some lobby. That scares me a lot more,” Hammoud said.

                The truth is Ahmed was one of the only Arabs I could find in Dearborn who openly admitted they actually planned to vote for Biden in November. I spent much of my time there immersed in the city’s café culture, and the more I talked to people, the more I saw the full extent of what was happening in Dearborn.

                I did manage to find one person who voted for Biden in the primary, a student named Shreya. But she’s already starting to change her mind. “I’m thinking about it now, and I’m not sure I want to vote anymore,” she said. “We only have bad options. And now I’m thinking uncommitted is a better option too. I can’t support what’s going on with Palestine,” she said. “The easiest choice now feels like voting uncommitted.”

                BOY, I SURE WAS WRONG ABOUT THIS ARTICLE, WASN’T I?

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  2·
                  3 months ago

                  The article from months ago, about Biden? Yeah… Sure.

                  You really do have a habit of ignoring any point that’s inconvenient to you. So I’ll leave you to read my previous post again.

                  • pjwestin@lemmy.world
                    3·
                    3 months ago

                    Wow, what a great point. Except the context I brought the article up in was, “This is the baggage Harris inherents as a member of the Biden administration, she needs to distance herself from Biden’s position in Israel if she wants to win Michigan, this makes Shapiro a very bad choice.” So, what Muslim Americans were saying about Biden 3 months ago is actually very relevant given that context, and it’s not a great point.

                    But thanks for, “You really do have a habit of ignoring any point that’s inconvenient to you.” Watching you ignore your misinterpretation of Harris’ Michigan polls, misunderstanding that entire article, and that you’ve still provided no evidence to support any of your assertions, that legit made me LOL. Anyway, as someone else in this thread said, once it had become clear you had no idea what you’re talking about, “We’re done here.”