Three caution points for Democrats…
- Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
- Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
- Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May
They’re not totally useless, they’re just useless as a prediction mechanism. You can still use them to examine change over time.
In other words, polls can never tell you who is likely to win, they’re terrible at that. But by looking at changes in polling over time, you can see how attitudes change over time, which can be useful in certain contexts.