I’m not even going to TRY to list out all 435 House Races, but let’s keep the discussion on that here.
Particularly notable will be any flips from D to R or R to D.
Currently, the makeup of the House is:
https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown
220 Republicans
212 Democrats
3 Vacancies
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) resigned effective 04/25/2024.
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) died 07/19/2024.
Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) died 08/21/2024.
If the Republicans lose just 5 seats, control will flip from them, back to the Democrats with a majority of 217 to 215. Not even counting the three vacancies.
Republicans are bad faith actors. They will remove the filibuster whether Democrats do it or not. The Republican’s intention is to form a christo-fascist dictatorship.
Our society is in need of systemic change and wealth redistribution. The time to act is now to prevent the worst outcomes of climate change.
All you need to change the filibuster is a majority of votes. There is no “they did it first clause” in the Constitution. That’s a post hoc justification for sound bites.
And removing the filibuster will serve the christo-fascist agenda just as well as anything else. You can try to hand-wave it away and act like I’m pointing this out for the “sound bites” (?), but it’s simply a fact. Perhaps you should look around. Half the country fully supports those christo-fascists, and they seem a lot more armed, a lot more organized, a lot more politically entrenched, and a lot more strategic. You’re right, they will probably remove the filibuster when they get in power, and you’ll get your wish.
It takes one vote for the Republicans to remove the filibuster. If the Republicans gain the majority in the Senate, there is nothing the Democrats can do to stop them. It’s an honor system. The filibuster ties the hands of the pro-democracy majority. The christo-fascist minority is free to obstruct when they are out of power and free to remove it when they are in power. Which the Republicans will do, because fascists are bad-faith actors.
“They did it first!” is literally a sound bite for the press. The Republicans were always going to remove the filibuster to get Supreme Court nominations through. Blaming the Democrats based on what they did previously was a post hoc fallacy to justify their actions.
FAAFO
Wanting a functioning, majority rule democracy isn’t the same as a christo-fascist dictatorship. By getting rid of the filibuster under a Democrat controlled Senate we will, in theory, be able to utilize systemic change to solve existential crises such as climate change and redistribute wealth to fix wealth inequality.
This is exactly why I like the 127 DC states plan so much, https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21063591/modest-proposal-to-save-american-democracy-pack-the-union-harvard-law-review
Need to drop the filibuster to pass the required laws to implement it, but once that’s done, Dems have not only a permanent super majority in the Senate, but the required two thirds majority of House, Senate, and even States to pass constitutional amendments. So as soon as its removed, the filibuster can be re-enshrined via a constitutional amendment as a permanent fixture (preventing the GOP from taking advantage once they inevitably retake power).
That’s a clever and funny strategy. And who knows we may end up wanting to do that or something similar. But what we need isn’t the certainty of a Democrat majority and a Republican minority, but majority rule.
Creating lots of states out of DC would solve our current dilemma of Republican overrepresentation, but it would not solve minority rule. We need to reform the institutions of our society from the ground up. The House and Senate each need a thousand seats, and the president and Supreme Court need to be elected by popular vote to name a few. All of these are possible to change, assuming bicameral legislatures are worthwhile to keep. Even the Senate, but it requires every state to agree.
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