the ones who prospered were the most aggressive ones, even conquering the whole world by force, it’s a survivorship bias situation.
this is my fundamental gripe with the problem, yes it’s technically a survivorship bias, but how do you remove it, that’s the hard question.
If 10 people in a group agree to leave 10,000 USD on a table, such that after 20 minutes, they can all split it amongst themselves, and then turn off the lights in the room and plug their ears in the meantime, someone if not multiple people are going to try and take it all for themselves.
Evolution has fundamentally programmed in a form of survivorship bias within basically every species. I don’t think you can separate it unfortunately.
not every group of humans is aggressive, but those eventually get conquered by the agressive ones, military power always ends up winning.
exactly.
It’s unscientific to say that any country, given the chance, would do the same as the europeans or the US empire did to the world.
i wouldn’t say that they would explicitly, but i would argue that being in a position of that much power, over that much of the world, in that much of a volatile position, there is a very high likelihood that they would influence some amount of the world, in a similar manner.
At least the Chinese century will prove or disprove this theory, given it’s the first significant power shift in the last 500 years, let’s see if they will be so brutal as the US and its allies (you know who) are to the world.
if we’re talking about modern day china, they already do a lot of power projection in the sea, illegally, same in the air. I don’t know if they’re doing any predatory lending to other countries, but that could very well change in the future, so we can’t say anything about it now. It’s highly likely that china at least wants other countries to be dependent on themselves at the minimum, which i would argue is a form of this power projection.
They are 100% in a position to do things that are more predatory, time will tell, i predict they will, it’s inevitable, but i could be wrong. Either that or china itself implodes before we get to that point, so who knows.
personally i know nothing about their military presence outside of the previously mentioned stuff. So i can’t really say anything about it, but there’s probably at least one bad thing they’ve done. Again, time will tell.
You can’t remove the bias in favour of aggression, but you can decouple aggression and oppression. You need to train the non-predators to get aggressive in defending one another. Look at elephants. They’re herbivores. They’re not out there attacking other species to exploit them. But no predator, not even lions, fucks with elephants. Because if you fuck with elephants, they’ll kick your ass.
That’s Latin for “if you want peace, prepare for war”. It was true 2000 years ago and it’s true now. If you want to be a pacifist, you should learn a martial art. If you want a peaceful government, you should learn to use a gun.
I’m on mobile (and sleepy) rn, so I don’t think I can properly respond to all your points, but thanks for this comment, I found it overall very constructive!
I’d just like to question one point for now
If 10 people in a group agree to leave 10,000 USD on a table, such that after 20 minutes, they can all split it amongst themselves, and then turn off the lights in the room and plug their ears in the meantime, someone if not multiple people are going to try and take it all for themselves.
Where are these people from? Urban, Rural, which country, which region etc, culture can have a big influence on that, I’d guess more collectivist cultures would have a different approach to this experiment than individualist ones such as you described. The country I live is also individualist so I see your point, but is all of humanity really like that?
A Native American tribe of 10 people would probably coordinate to be able to split the money, or even to invest collectivelly in their own village for example. A group of 10 New York executives with survival of the fittest mentality would probably act like you described.
Just some food for thought, hope you or anyone reading finds this interesting.
this is my fundamental gripe with the problem, yes it’s technically a survivorship bias, but how do you remove it, that’s the hard question.
If 10 people in a group agree to leave 10,000 USD on a table, such that after 20 minutes, they can all split it amongst themselves, and then turn off the lights in the room and plug their ears in the meantime, someone if not multiple people are going to try and take it all for themselves.
Evolution has fundamentally programmed in a form of survivorship bias within basically every species. I don’t think you can separate it unfortunately.
exactly.
i wouldn’t say that they would explicitly, but i would argue that being in a position of that much power, over that much of the world, in that much of a volatile position, there is a very high likelihood that they would influence some amount of the world, in a similar manner.
if we’re talking about modern day china, they already do a lot of power projection in the sea, illegally, same in the air. I don’t know if they’re doing any predatory lending to other countries, but that could very well change in the future, so we can’t say anything about it now. It’s highly likely that china at least wants other countries to be dependent on themselves at the minimum, which i would argue is a form of this power projection.
They are 100% in a position to do things that are more predatory, time will tell, i predict they will, it’s inevitable, but i could be wrong. Either that or china itself implodes before we get to that point, so who knows.
personally i know nothing about their military presence outside of the previously mentioned stuff. So i can’t really say anything about it, but there’s probably at least one bad thing they’ve done. Again, time will tell.
You can’t remove the bias in favour of aggression, but you can decouple aggression and oppression. You need to train the non-predators to get aggressive in defending one another. Look at elephants. They’re herbivores. They’re not out there attacking other species to exploit them. But no predator, not even lions, fucks with elephants. Because if you fuck with elephants, they’ll kick your ass.
Interesting point, based on this I could argue that military might (elephant power) is necessary for peace, if not used to coerce others
a country that builds nuclear power to protect itself but has a no first aggression rule could be a parallel to the elephants
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
That’s Latin for “if you want peace, prepare for war”. It was true 2000 years ago and it’s true now. If you want to be a pacifist, you should learn a martial art. If you want a peaceful government, you should learn to use a gun.
I’m on mobile (and sleepy) rn, so I don’t think I can properly respond to all your points, but thanks for this comment, I found it overall very constructive!
I’d just like to question one point for now
Where are these people from? Urban, Rural, which country, which region etc, culture can have a big influence on that, I’d guess more collectivist cultures would have a different approach to this experiment than individualist ones such as you described. The country I live is also individualist so I see your point, but is all of humanity really like that?
A Native American tribe of 10 people would probably coordinate to be able to split the money, or even to invest collectivelly in their own village for example. A group of 10 New York executives with survival of the fittest mentality would probably act like you described.
Just some food for thought, hope you or anyone reading finds this interesting.
I may prefer being dependent to being conquered by force