The jump in distro versions, say, from Fedora 38 to Fedora 39, is not the same as the jump from Windows 10 to Windows 11. It’s more like the jump from version 23H2 to 24H2.
Now, I’m sure even most Windows users among those reading will ask “wtf are 23H2 and 24H2”? The answer is that those version numbers are the Windows analogue to the “23.10” at the end of “Ubuntu 23.10”. But the difference is that this distinction is invisible to Windows users.
Why?
Linux distros present these as “operating system upgrades”, which makes it seem like you’re moving from two different and incompatible operating systems. Windows calls them “feature updates”. They’re presented as a big deal in Linux, whereas on Windows, it’s just an unusually large update.
This has the effect of making it seem like Linux is constantly breaking software and that you need to move to a completely different OS every six to nine months, which is completely false. While that might’ve been true in the past, it is increasingly true today that anything that will run on, say, Ubuntu 22.04 can also run without modification (except maybe for hardcoded version checks/repository names) on Ubuntu 23.10, and will still probably work on Ubuntu 24.04. It’s not guaranteed, but neither is it on Windows, and the odds are very good either way.
I will end on the remark that for many distros, a version upgrade is implemented as nothing more than changing the repositories and then downloading the new versions of all the packages present and running a few scripts. The only relevant changes (from the user’s perspective) is usually the implementation of new features and maybe a few changes to the UI. In other words, “feature update” describes it perfectly.
It clearly doesn’t stop anyone from trying Linux.
What stops them is compatibility issues with apps or hardware. Otherwise, non geeky people don’t care about these things.
I’d even say that the amount of distributions or desktop environments is more scary for people.
Exactly
We go through cycles of this. People get it in their head that “linux is finally ready for mainstrream desktop usage”. A lot of people “make the change” and then assess it for themselves.
But there is always this crowd of evangelists that insist on either being ridiculously pedantic or downplaying some of the headaches. And this is a perfect example of… both?
On the Windows side? Most people will never notice that. I think MS have reached the point where they don’t even give users a choice after N weeks? You just go down in the middle of watching a naughty video and come up to Cortana turning on all the spyware and telling you to use Edge already.
On “Linux”? It is almost (?) always a series of special commands you provide your package manager and/or upgrade app where it feels like someone is trying to warn you at every step of the way that you WILL destroy your computer. And… it might. I am still not convinced that something didn’t get borked with Fedora and plasma and I probably need to just set aside an hour or two to reformat.
The end result is largely the same (depending on what version and what distro). But it very much goes beyond “numbers are scary” and into “But you said I shouldn’t run random commands I find on the internet with the word ‘sudo’ in them. And now I should?” territory.
Personally? I think this is actually an excellent selling point. I hate that Windows does whatever the hell it wants these days. I like that I am making a conscious effort to update my OS. And, while I dislike them in practice, I think “immutable OSes” are the way to make this palatable for the masses.
You don’t know that it hasn’t stopped anyone from using Linux. The reality of large numbers is that with a big enough sample size, any minor frustration (or seemingly minor) has almost certainly stopped someone from using Linux.
From that perspective, the fact that the mascot is a penguin named Tux has certainly stopped someone from using Linux, but I’m not sure that’s a meaningful thing to worry about or a good reason to change it…
The same people must be terrified at the super-market