I think it’s a little more complex today than it was in the days of Win7.

First, the performance/compatibility gap is much smaller than it used to be. Ie, back in those days, Wine was much more of a crapshoot. Now, compatibility is a lot better, and there are a number of straightforward troubleshooting tools like Winetricks. Proton is also huge, being an in-built feature in the largest gaming platform on PC.

Second, the Steamdeck has exposed numerous more casual PC gamers to Linux than probably there ever has been in the past. Granted, the PC handheld market isn’t massive, but it’s also not small. People want to play AAA pc games in the form factor of a Switch, and it just so happens that the most popular, well polished and best supported product in that market ships with Linux.

Third, todays focus on privacy and freedom is much more of a hot button issue than it was back in the day. I’m not at all trying to imply that there weren’t priviacy concious folk back then, but face it, in 2011, your car didn’t track your location and sell that data to marketing companies. Your phone didn’t capture your fingerprints, and your operating system didn’t track your online shopping habbits and show you ads in the start menu, or take constant screen-captures of your work at all times. People are more concious of their privacy now than they ever were (even people who aren’t super into tech are at the very least familiar with ad blockers and VPNs). I genuinely believe this will be one of the bigger factors if there is an uptick. People will learn about this alternative OS with no ads, no trackers, plus it’s free, and that will at least get them curious. You’re right, some will try but abandon it, some won’t care at all, but I think the number of people who just want out of what MS is locking them into is growing.