His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it’s only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.
In this particular case, OP said none of the others met their needs. I would like to know what new functionality this one has to know if it’s something I’m interested in or not. It’s not a critique - it’s helping me understand if I want to check it out or not.
The insurance is based on the cost to rebuild the home, which has also drastically gone up, so it makes sense that it has risen too
Vast majority don’t, but I found after awhile that my favorite does (Ale8). That was on me - it’s clearly marked.
I mean, that makes me even more skeptical. 108 volunteers tracked for that many sparesely populated vectors is 100% going to have hundreds of false positives just due to statistical noise.
I appreciate your original question and tact through these follow ups. I’m also having trouble finding primary sources in my quick search.
I grew up one county away from Middletown Ohio. It’s nothing like the other Appalachian counties I’ve been in. It’s like a very rural suburb of Cincinnati. You’re 5~10 miles from a crap ton of big city amenities. I went there all the time for sports, and they came to my much more urban high school to play too. Yes, it’s got some very large rural areas but it’s not geographically isolated the way the rest of Appalachia is and has parts of it that are very suburban (vs truly rural).
It’s so hard to figure out this stuff … but as a guy into computers who was debating going into academia instead of the field, this is what I did …
I took the money, but lived like I had only the academic salary and invested the rest. 15 years in, life is pretty cushy, I’ve found a relaxing niche in my field that I like my job, but it’s basically optional as long as I stay willing to live like an academic. But there were definitely some pains to get here. I might quit and go back, I might quit and travel, or quit and do a start up, but I like my job a lot now so I’m keeping at it.
Not a bad video game, but I thought I had zero chance of liking it. I bought American Truck Simulator for $2 and it’s such a good zone out video with something (radio/e-book/etc) on in the background. When I’m too exhausted to think, but want to be slightly more engaged than just throwing something on TV, it’s now my go to right now. I bought it on the most recent steam summer sale and have 20 hours into already. All of it on the Steam Deck.
I’m going to use this as an excuse to go back and play Hades 1. I bought and binged it when it first released EA, and never went back to play the released version.
As much as I get this sentiment, I chose my profession in part because I like learning and my area requires learning new stuff all the time to stay relevant. The learning part of work is the part I enjoy and look forward to.
I have a PSN account. I can’t ethically support this move that locked so many players out 4 months after buying a game. So I won’t be buying until at minimum a solution is in place for all those users, but probably not even then.
As a spouse of someone who suffers from ARFID, I just wanted to pass along that there are those out there who understand the extreme suffering it can cause and recognize that the condition is not a choice you are making. She went most of her life undiagnosed and getting the diagnosis was so incredibly validating because it showed what she was experiencing was beyond her control. We wish you the best.
The distribution itself shouldn’t cause a large drop in the per share price since the market is aware of this coming and would view it as a high probability of happening based on current prices. Otherwise this would be the easiest short term short ever.
(For fans of Sanderson/Cosmere) But it could be fire …
Just got a steam deck and love it. I also got the official dock and can’t believe how bad it is. I have to unplug it and my TV half the time to get the dock to connect correctly. It works fine for a few days, then stops. I’ve had picture issues and audio issues and even issues with the deck right after disconnecting it.
Apologies, but your specific example is incorrect. The cap on social security taxes is adjusted every year not by act of congress, but by existing law that indexes the cap to inflation. Therefore, it is already baked into the way it is scored and is not ignored.
You are correct that scoring cannot take into account any actions congress may take.
This time is a little different though than history. From 1984-2020, Social Security took in more in revenue than it paid out on benefits. It is now running at a deficit. Since being formed, it has run at a deficit less than 15 total years, and most of them earlier on. The social security trust fund has never been depleted during that time either. Without any changes to law, it will continue to run at a deficit until the late 2030s when the trust fund would be depleted and taxes alone would cover a projected 80% of benefits.
That 80% is why it’s bullshit to your point. There are so many simple, easy ways to solve this and if they do nothing, we could continue to pay out 80% of benefits with no other changes but that’ll never happen. It would be political suicide to literally starve our retired population. My favorite way to address it is removing the cap, but there’s other small adjustments that make a huge difference. Things like changing the inflation adjustment to a similar but lower index, raising the retirement age, raising the tax by less than a percent, means testing, etc … and the thing that pisses me off is the sooner we take one of these actions, the more of the trust fund is preserved, and the impact is so much greater. I don’t like the other solutions and would strongly prefer raising the cap, but I’d take most of them over inaction, depleting the trust fund, and reducing benefits.
Many jurisdictions have laws that require a form of payment that doesn’t come with fees. I think mine requires the landlord to be able to accept cash or check without fees. If the lease says you can only pay online, and the only way to pay online requires those fees, that would be illegal in my area.
There’s no guarantee you can draw a circle through the bottom of the four legs of a table (opposite legs can be off in the same direction). Also, most floors are not perfectly flat, therefore you can’t assume the floor is at one elevation.