USA aid is very important to Ukraine, but even without it they would continue fighting. Ukraine has been without USA material aid for months already in the past, when the republican party was blocking it. And as it turned out, Ukraine sustained higher casualties and had less offensive power than with USA aid, but they were never close to folding.
Ukrainians + their supporting neighbours are very motivated to not be occupied by Russia, so they’re not going to just give up if Putin’s stooges come to power in the USA.
There’s also the fact that a hypothetical end to US aid wouldn’t end EU aid. It’s definitely not on the same scale as the US due to our much smaller military sector, but that’d likely change in the event of a US shut-down of aid.
In my mind, the most likely results would be:
Short-term: Very dangerous period for Ukraine, they lose some ground, lots of men (similar to the last time they had a crippling artillery shell shortage).
Medium-term: EU military sector slowly ramps up to meet demand, as about 3/4 of central & eastern EU considers this an existential war that cannot be lost at any cost.
Long-term: After the war is over (however many more years that takes), Russia finally negotiates some kind of ceasefire where they can save some face internally and brag about how they “Denazified” Ukraine while going home and accomplishing nothing, EU is much more self-sufficient and therefore buys less from the US, and they aren’t seen as a trust-worthy ally militarily anymore. Even if on paper most EU members are still in NATO, they consider the security guarantees of the EU as much more important and serious.
Heck, Trump declared Canada, a strategic risk during his s presidency. Just to stop steel imports. No one can consider the USA a reliable ally as long as Maga is around.
Crippling russian economy might lead to yo a coup, putins death or just his health declining can also lead to instability which can lead to a coup too etc. A soft coup some years down the line for example.
USA aid is very important to Ukraine, but even without it they would continue fighting. Ukraine has been without USA material aid for months already in the past, when the republican party was blocking it. And as it turned out, Ukraine sustained higher casualties and had less offensive power than with USA aid, but they were never close to folding.
Ukrainians + their supporting neighbours are very motivated to not be occupied by Russia, so they’re not going to just give up if Putin’s stooges come to power in the USA.
There’s also the fact that a hypothetical end to US aid wouldn’t end EU aid. It’s definitely not on the same scale as the US due to our much smaller military sector, but that’d likely change in the event of a US shut-down of aid.
In my mind, the most likely results would be:
Short-term: Very dangerous period for Ukraine, they lose some ground, lots of men (similar to the last time they had a crippling artillery shell shortage).
Medium-term: EU military sector slowly ramps up to meet demand, as about 3/4 of central & eastern EU considers this an existential war that cannot be lost at any cost.
Long-term: After the war is over (however many more years that takes), Russia finally negotiates some kind of ceasefire where they can save some face internally and brag about how they “Denazified” Ukraine while going home and accomplishing nothing, EU is much more self-sufficient and therefore buys less from the US, and they aren’t seen as a trust-worthy ally militarily anymore. Even if on paper most EU members are still in NATO, they consider the security guarantees of the EU as much more important and serious.
Heck, Trump declared Canada, a strategic risk during his s presidency. Just to stop steel imports. No one can consider the USA a reliable ally as long as Maga is around.
Crippling russian economy might lead to yo a coup, putins death or just his health declining can also lead to instability which can lead to a coup too etc. A soft coup some years down the line for example.