A survey shows most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under pressure brought by high interest rates.

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

  • EatATaco@lemm.eeEnglish
    2·
    1 year ago

    A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.

    Untrue, as it proves, without a doubt proves that:

    Every economists was predicting recession a few months back.

    is untrue.

    This is the advantage of basing your opinions off the facts, tas he facts actually support your claims.

      • EatATaco@lemm.eeEnglish
        2·
        1 year ago

        The fed is a government economist, at least in some regard, so even that claim falls pretty empty.

        But notice how I was able to back up my claims with facts, you just moved the goal posts, without admitting fault, to a new unsupported claim.

        You’re not clever, you’re a joke.